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Ringgit Weekly Outlook - 19 July 2024

Likely rangebound amid lack of catalysts; US macro to influence direction

The ringgit strengthened against the USD, closing yesterday at 4.67, but failed to appreciate further towards the 4.65 level due to rising bets of a Trump presidency following a failed assassination over the weekend. Weaker China economic data and a sharp moderation in Malaysia's exports also weighed on the ringgit. As expected, Powell's dovish remarks acknowledging that the past three inflation prints bolstered the central bank's confidence that inflation is on track to 2.0% helped boost the ringgit. Despite hotter-than-expected US PPI and above-consensus retail sales figures, the market still expects a September rate cut, currently priced at over 90% probability.