December exports surged on frontloading activity; tariff threat may cloud outlook
Exports surged 16.9% (Nov: 3.9%), far beating expectations (KIBB: 9.0%; consensus: 8.8%). Full-year exports rebounded 5.7% in 2024 (2023: -8.0%), slightly above the house forecast of 4.9%
- MoM (9.7%; Nov: -1.4%): sharp recovery from prior month’s decline.
Strong exports to Singapore and key manufacturing products, driven by frontloading activity and low base
- By destination: sharp rebound to Singapore (44.4%; Nov: -1.4%) and China (9.6%; Nov: -11.9%), but partially hampered by moderate growth to the US (29.4%; Nov: 57.3%) and weak exports to Japan (-6.0%; Nov: -0.4%).
- By sector: growth led by manufacturing (18.5%; Nov: 5.0%) and agriculture (28.9%; Nov: 13.2%) exports, but overall momentum was capped by persistent weakness in mining (-5.1%; Nov: -17.3%).
- By major product: key drivers included electrical and electronics (E&E) (27.8%; Nov: 12.4%) and palm oil and palm-based products (31.1%; Nov: 19.9%).
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