Moderate growth expected, but remain supported by manufacturing sector
The Department of Statistics (DOSM) is slated to release its actual 3Q24 GDP data this Friday, 15th, with growth rate expected at 5.3% (2Q24: 5.9%)
- This reading is expected to match DOSM's advance GDP estimate, as well as ours and consensus projections.
Key macro indicators suggest moderate expansion amid a slowdown in mining and domestic demand but remained supported by manufacturing sector and an unexpected boost from construction sector
- Manufacturing: expected to expand further, marking four consecutive quarters of expansion as manufacturing output index accelerates to 5.8% (2Q24: 4.9%), backed by strong export-oriented industries (5.8%; 2Q24: 4.0%), particularly in the E&E subsector. This aligns with robust export growth, which surged to 7.8% (2Q24: 5.8%), reaching a seven-quarter high or the highest since 4Q22. Nevertheless, growth may be capped by moderate growth in domestic-oriented industries (5.7%; 2Q24: 6.8%).
- Construction: Likely to surprise on the upside, as 3Q24 construction work done rose 22.9% (2Q24: 20.2%) to RM41.1b (2Q24: RM38.9b), driven by gains in residential buildings and non-residential buildings projects
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